Building a practical TSP projection
A useful TSP forecast blends contribution discipline with realistic return assumptions. Start with your current balance, annual contribution rate, and agency match assumptions. Then run conservative and moderate return cases so you can see how sensitive your future balance is to market conditions. This helps avoid overconfidence in a single optimistic projection.
- Contribute at least enough to capture the full agency match where possible.
- Stress-test with lower return assumptions to reduce planning risk.
- Coordinate withdrawal timing with projected pension and Social Security cash flow.
Frequently asked questions
Should I use one average return number?
Use a range. A single number can hide downside risk and produce unrealistic income expectations.
How does this connect to retirement gap planning?
Your TSP is often the primary source for covering any income gap after pension and Social Security are accounted for.